The Projected Impact of Generative AI on Future Productivity Growth — Penn Wharton Budget Model
This Wharton Budget Model article analyzes how generative AI adoption may affect long-term productivity growth, weighing the potential efficiency gains against workforce challenges and measurement complexities. Connect with Reliance Infosystems to discuss what these shifts could mean for your business strategy.
Generative AI is expected to increase productivity and GDP by approximately 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. The strongest boost to annual productivity growth is anticipated in the early 2030s, with a peak contribution of 0.2 percentage points in 2032.
Around 40% of current GDP could be significantly impacted by generative AI, with occupations at the 80th percentile of earnings being the most exposed. Approximately half of the work in these high-earning jobs is susceptible to automation by AI.
Long-term Effects of AI Adoption
While AI's boost to productivity growth is projected to peak in the early 2030s, its long-term effect will result in a permanent increase in total factor productivity (TFP) levels, estimated to be around 1.5% higher by 2035, 3% higher by 2055, and 3.7% higher by 2075 compared to a scenario without AI.
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The Projected Impact of Generative AI on Future Productivity Growth — Penn Wharton Budget Model
published by Reliance Infosystems
Reliance Infosystems Group is a Microsoft Advanced Specialization Partner with Solutions Partner designations in Modern Work, Digital & App Innovation, Infrastructure and Data and AI. The group is championing business transformation for major verticals Across MEA, UK, US and Canada. We are focused on helping enterprise and midsize businesses transform their core operations to become agile, scalable and simplified by leveraging the expansive technology innovations, speed, reduced cost and unparallel flexibility resident in Microsoft Cloud. Our future-geared approach to Microsoft Cloud practices won us both the 2017, 2021 and currently 2024 Microsoft Partner of the Year for Nigeria and Botswana
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